Rao P S, Subramanian M, Subramanian G, Parkash I
Division of Epidemiology & Statistics, Central Leprosy Teaching & Research Institute, Chengalpattu.
Indian J Lepr. 1995 Jul-Sep;67(3):285-92.
Data regarding the trends of new-case detection rates of leprosy for India as a whole, for the State of Andhra Pradesh, and for Srikakulam district in Andhra Pradesh were generated and projected up to 2000 AD. The prevalence rate by 2000 AD was worked out based on these new -case detection rates. The projections show that at the current slowly declining trend of new-case detection, with 20% MB cases among the newly detected cases and the current mean duration of treatment, the elimination goal of leprosy by 2000 AD, could possibly be achieved at Srikakulam district level only, where the MDT project has been under implementation for over ten years, but not at the State or country levels. The achievement of elimination goal should be possible in other geographic units also if the duration of disease could be shortened to one month or less, for both paucibacillary and multibacillary types of leprosy.
生成了关于整个印度、安得拉邦以及安得拉邦的斯里卡库拉姆区麻风病新病例发现率趋势的数据，并预测到公元2000年。根据这些新病例发现率计算出了到公元2000年的患病率。预测表明，按照新病例发现率目前缓慢下降的趋势，新发现病例中20%为多菌型病例且治疗平均时长不变，只有在已经实施多药联合化疗项目十多年的斯里卡库拉姆区，有可能在公元2000年实现麻风病消除目标，而在邦或国家层面则无法实现。如果对于少菌型和多菌型麻风病，疾病时长都能缩短至一个月或更短，那么在其他地理区域也应能够实现消除目标。
