Chen X S, Li W Z, Jiang C, Ye G Y
Institute of Dermatology, CAMS&PUMC National Centre for STD and Leprosy Control, Nanjing, China.
Indian J Lepr. 1999 Apr-Jun;71(2):189-201.
A study was carried out based upon the data from the National System for Leprosy Surveillance and using appropriate mathematical models. The results showed that of 337 counties where the national goal of basic eradication of leprosy had not been reached and in 40 counties where the WHO goal of leprosy elimination had not been achieved in 1996, the detection rates in calendar years followed exponential models with significant goodness-of-fit. In the 67 counties with downward trends of detection rates, the national goal can be met in terms of detection rate in 6% of counties before the year 2000 or 34.4% before the year 2010, or, in terms of prevalence rate in 31.3% before the year 2010. In the 11 counties with downward trends of the detection rates, the WHO target can be met in eight to ten counties within this century when the duration of disease was determined with the WHO definition. If the MB proportion among new cases increased by 10%, the target would be met one year later. However, at the same MB proportion, the change of fixed treatment schedules from PB six months and MB two years to PB nine months and MB three years will cause achievement of the goal to be postponed by two to ten years.
一项基于国家麻风病监测系统的数据并使用适当数学模型开展的研究。结果显示，在1996年尚未实现全国基本消灭麻风病目标的337个县以及未达到世界卫生组织消除麻风病目标的40个县中，历年的发现率遵循指数模型，拟合优度显著。在发现率呈下降趋势的67个县中，就发现率而言，到2000年前6%的县、到2010年前34.4%的县可实现全国目标；或者就患病率而言，到2010年前31.3%的县可实现全国目标。在发现率呈下降趋势的11个县中，按照世界卫生组织的定义确定疾病持续时间时，本世纪内8至10个县可实现世界卫生组织的目标。如果新病例中的多菌型比例增加10%，目标将在一年后实现。然而，在相同的多菌型比例下，固定治疗方案从少菌型6个月和多菌型2年改为少菌型9个月和多菌型3年将导致目标的实现推迟2至10年。
