Beckett L A, Brock D B, Lemke J H, Mendes de Leon C F, Guralnik J M, Fillenbaum G G, Branch L G, Wetle T T, Evans D A
Rush Institute on Aging, Rush University and Rush Presbyterian St. Luke's Medical Center, Chicago, IL 60612, USA.
Am J Epidemiol. 1996 Apr 15;143(8):766-78. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a008814.
Change in self-reported physical function was examined using baseline and 5 years of follow-up data between 1982 and 1991 from the four Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly studies. In East Boston, Massachusetts (n = 3,809), Iowa and Washington Counties, Iowa (n = 3,673), New Haven, Connecticut (n = 2,812), and North Carolina (n = 4,163), noninstitutionalized persons aged 65 years and older were asked a series of questions to assess their physical function: a modified Katz Activities of Daily Living (ADL) scale, three items from the Rosow-Breslau Functional Health Scale, and questions on physical performance, adapted from Nagi, as well as information on demographic, social, and health characteristics. Longitudinal statistical analyses (random effects and Markov transition models) were used to evaluate improvement, stability, and deterioration in functional ability at both an individual and a population level over multiple years of data. The average decline in physical function associated with age was found to be greater than previous cross-sectional studies have suggested, and the rate of decline increased with increasing age. Considerable individual variation was evident. Although many people experienced declines, a smaller but substantial portion experienced recovery. Women reported a greater rate of decline in physical function and were less likely to recover from disability.
利用1982年至1991年期间四项老年人流行病学研究的既定人群的基线数据和5年随访数据，对自我报告的身体功能变化进行了研究。在马萨诸塞州东波士顿（n = 3809）、爱荷华州爱荷华县和华盛顿县（n = 3673）、康涅狄格州纽黑文（n = 2812）以及北卡罗来纳州（n = 4163），65岁及以上的非机构化人员被问及一系列问题以评估他们的身体功能：改良的Katz日常生活活动（ADL）量表、Rosow - Breslau功能健康量表中的三个项目、改编自Nagi的身体表现问题，以及有关人口统计学、社会和健康特征的信息。纵向统计分析（随机效应和马尔可夫转移模型）用于评估多年数据中个体和人群层面功能能力的改善、稳定性和恶化情况。发现与年龄相关的身体功能平均下降幅度大于以往横断面研究的结果，且下降速度随年龄增长而加快。个体差异相当明显。虽然许多人身体功能出现下降，但一小部分但数量可观的人身体功能得到恢复。女性报告的身体功能下降率更高，且从残疾中恢复的可能性更小。
