Self-evaluated health and mortality among the elderly in New Haven, Connecticut, and Iowa and Washington counties, Iowa, 1982-1986.

The ability of global self-evaluations of health to predict survival in follow-up studies is tested in two samples of elderly, noninstitutionalized adults. Data from the Yale Health and Aging Project, New Haven, Connecticut (n = 2,812), and the 65+ Rural Health Study, Iowa and Washington counties, Iowa (n = 3,673), were used to investigate the association between 1982 self-evaluated global health status (excellent, good, fair, poor) and survivorship from 1982 to 1986. Despite extensive controls for physical health status in the form of measures of disabilities and chronic conditions, sociodemographic characteristics, and health risk behaviors at the beginning of the follow-up period, and the use of analytic techniques which take into account the stratified sample design of the New Haven data, poor self-perceptions of health significantly increase the risk of mortality. Adjusted odds ratios for the extreme categories ("poor" as compared with "excellent") for New Haven men and women were 5.33 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.93-14.75) and 2.99 (95% CI 1.30-6.91), respectively; for Iowa men and women they were 4.84 (95% CI 2.22-10.57) and 3.16 (95% CI 1.49-6.71). Respondents reporting "fair" and "good" health also show elevated risks of mortality in dose-response fashion. Self-perceptions of health status appear to be a factor of unique prospective significance in mortality studies.