Couroucé A M, Pillonel J
Institut National de la Transfusion Sanguine, Paris.
Transfus Clin Biol. 1996;3(1):13-8. doi: 10.1016/s1246-7820(96)80008-5.
This study estimates the risk of transmitting human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), human T lymphotropic virus (HTLV), hepatitis C virus (HCV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) from blood units using a seroconversion incidence model. Data from 13 blood transfusion centers collecting about 1 million donations per year and belonging to the Retrovirus and the Viral Hepatitis study groups were analyzed during the 3 year study period (1992-1994) for HIV, HTLV, and HBV and a 2 year study period for HCV (1993-1994). Seroconversion incidence rates were calculated and multiplied by estimates of the serological window period for each agent to obtain residual risk. The risk that an infectious donation was made during the window period was estimated to be 1 in 2 millions (95% CI: 1/10(7)-1/450000) for HTLV, 1 in 588000 (1/3 300000-1/227000) for HIV, 1 in 217000 (1/714000-1/83000) for HCV and 1 in 112000 (1/333000-1/43500) for HBV. This risk was estimated for the totality of donations collected in France for HIV and HTLV. For HIV it was the same as above (1 in 588000) and for HTLV it was much lower (1 in 7 millions).
本研究使用血清转化发病率模型估算了血液制品传播人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）、人类嗜T淋巴细胞病毒（HTLV）、丙型肝炎病毒（HCV）和乙型肝炎病毒（HBV）的风险。在3年研究期（1992 - 1994年）内，对来自逆转录病毒和病毒性肝炎研究组的13个输血中心的数据进行了分析，这些中心每年收集约100万份献血，分析内容包括HIV、HTLV和HBV；对HCV的分析则在2年研究期（1993 - 1994年）内进行。计算血清转化发病率，并乘以每种病原体血清学窗口期的估计值，以获得残余风险。估计窗口期内发生感染性献血的风险为：HTLV为200万分之一（95%可信区间：1/10⁷ - 1/450000），HIV为58.8万分之一（1/3300000 - 1/227000），HCV为21.7万分之一（1/714000 - 1/83000），HBV为11.2万分之一（1/333000 - 1/43500）。这一风险是针对法国收集的所有HIV和HTLV献血总体估算的。对于HIV，结果与上述相同（58.8万分之一），对于HTLV则低得多（700万分之一）。
