Jetten T H, Martens W J, Takken W
Department of Entomology, Wageningen Agricultural University, The Netherlands.
J Med Entomol. 1996 May;33(3):361-71. doi: 10.1093/jmedent/33.3.361.
The current geographic range of malaria is much smaller than its potential range. In many regions there exists a phenomena characterized as "Anophelism without malaria." The vectors are present but malaria transmission does not occur. Vectorial capacity often has been used as a parameter to estimate the susceptibility of an area to malaria. Model computations with global climatological data show that a dynamic concept of vectorial capacity can be used as a comparative risk indicator to predict the current extent and distribution of malarious regions in the world. A sensitivity analysis done in 3 distinct geographic areas shows that the areas of largest change of epidemic potential caused by a temperature increase are those where mosquitoes already occur but where development of the parasite is limited by temperature. Computations with the model presented here predict, with different climate scenarios, an increased malaria risk in areas bordering malaria endemic regions and at higher altitudes within malarious regions under a temperature increase of 2-4 degrees C.
当前疟疾的地理分布范围远小于其潜在范围。在许多地区存在一种被称为“无疟疾的按蚊孳生”的现象。传播媒介存在，但疟疾传播并未发生。媒介能量常被用作评估一个地区对疟疾易感性的参数。利用全球气候数据进行的模型计算表明，媒介能量的动态概念可作为一种比较风险指标，用于预测世界上疟疾流行地区的当前范围和分布。在3个不同地理区域进行的敏感性分析表明，温度升高导致流行潜力变化最大的区域是那些已经有蚊子存在，但寄生虫发育受温度限制的地区。使用本文提出的模型进行的计算预测，在不同气候情景下，温度升高2 - 4摄氏度时，疟疾流行地区周边以及疟疾流行地区内较高海拔地区的疟疾风险将会增加。
