The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, Mathematics Institute and School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK.
One Virology-Wolfson Centre for Global Virus Research, School of Veterinary Medicine and Science, University of Nottingham, Loughborough LE12 5RD, UK.
Viruses. 2024 Jul 30;16(8):1221. doi: 10.3390/v16081221.
Most mathematical models that assess the vectorial capacity of disease-transmitting insects typically focus on the influence of climatic factors to predict variations across different times and locations, or examine the impact of vector control interventions to forecast their potential effectiveness. We combine features of existing models to develop a novel model for vectorial capacity that considers both climate and vector control. This model considers how vector control tools affect vectors at each stage of their feeding cycle, and incorporates host availability and preference. Applying this model to arboviruses of veterinary importance in Europe, we show that African horse sickness virus (AHSV) has a higher peak predicted vectorial capacity than bluetongue virus (BTV), Schmallenberg virus (SBV), and epizootic haemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV). However, AHSV has a shorter average infectious period due to high mortality; therefore, the overall basic reproduction number of AHSV is similar to BTV. A comparable relationship exists between SBV and EHDV, with both viruses showing similar basic reproduction numbers. Focusing on AHSV transmission in the UK, insecticide-treated stable netting is shown to significantly reduce vectorial capacity of , even at low coverage levels. However, untreated stable netting is likely to have limited impact. Overall, this model can be used to consider both climate and vector control interventions either currently utilised or for potential use in an outbreak, and could help guide policy makers seeking to mitigate the impact of climate change on disease control.
大多数评估病媒昆虫媒介能力的数学模型通常侧重于气候因素的影响，以预测不同时间和地点的变化，或研究病媒控制干预措施的影响，以预测其潜在效果。我们结合现有模型的特点，开发了一种新的媒介能力模型，该模型同时考虑了气候和病媒控制因素。该模型考虑了病媒控制工具如何在其取食周期的每个阶段影响病媒，并且纳入了宿主的可及性和偏好。将该模型应用于在欧洲具有重要兽医意义的虫媒病毒，我们发现，非洲马瘟病毒（AHSV）的预测媒介能力峰值高于蓝舌病病毒（BTV）、西尼罗河病毒（SBV）和马传染性贫血病毒（EHDV）。然而，由于高死亡率，AHSV 的平均感染期较短；因此，AHSV 的总体基本繁殖数与 BTV 相似。SBV 和 EHDV 之间存在类似的关系，两种病毒的基本繁殖数相似。以英国 AHSV 的传播为例，研究表明，经杀虫剂处理的马厩网即使在低覆盖率水平下，也能显著降低媒介的能力。然而，未经处理的马厩网可能影响有限。总的来说，该模型可用于考虑当前使用或在疫情中潜在使用的气候和病媒控制干预措施，并有助于指导决策者减轻气候变化对疾病控制的影响。
