Renkema J A, Stelwagen J
Tijdschr Diergeneeskd. 1977 Jun 15;102(12):739-47.
A reduction of the forced replacement rate is found to be of major economic importance on the farm level. In the model, the income earned from a fifth lactation of a cow showing an average production is approximately Dfl 440 higher than the earned income per annum over the average herd life of 4.3 lactations. A farm with a herd of fifty cows showing average production and an average herd life of 5.3 years will have approximately Dfl 9600 more earned income each year than a similar farm with an average herd life of 3.3 years. The yield resulting from a longer herd life is subject to the law of diminishing returns. For the annual income from a dairy herd, a sixth lactation is of less importance than a fifth lactation, etc. The economic importance of a long herd life appears to be remarkably stable, i.e. hardly affected by: (a) The average productive capacity of the herd as regards milk and/or meat. (Note: Differences in milk-producing capacity within a herd have a marked effect on the economic value of an additional lactation by an individual cow). (b) The presence or absence of a moderate genetic improvement (1 per cent per annum) in milk-yield.
研究发现,降低强制更换率在农场层面具有重大经济意义。在该模型中,一头处于第五泌乳期且产奶量平均的奶牛所获得的收入,比在平均4.3个泌乳期的牛群寿命期间每年获得的收入高出约440荷兰盾。一个拥有50头奶牛且产奶量平均、牛群平均寿命为5.3年的农场,每年的收入将比一个类似的、牛群平均寿命为3.3年的农场多出约9600荷兰盾。牛群寿命延长带来的产量遵循收益递减规律。对于奶牛群的年收入而言,第六泌乳期的重要性低于第五泌乳期等。牛群寿命长的经济重要性似乎非常稳定,即几乎不受以下因素影响:(a) 牛群在产奶和/或产肉方面的平均生产能力。(注:牛群中产奶能力的差异对个体奶牛额外一个泌乳期的经济价值有显著影响)。(b) 产奶量是否有适度的遗传改良(每年1%)。