Dijkhuizen A A, Renkema J A
Tijdschr Diergeneeskd. 1977 Nov 1;102(21):1239-48.
Animal diseases cause considerable losses among dairy cattle in the Netherlands. Model calculations show that the loss on farm level from animal diseases is approximately Dfl 440.--per cow per annum. Increasing attention is being paid to one of them e.g. mastitis. This disease causing an annual loss on farm level of approximately Dfl 125.--per average cow present (a.c.p.). Currently, a Mastitis Control Program (MCP) is being advocated. When the expected profits and cost of the MCP are analysed, different economic levels can be distinguished. Analysis on farm level showed that, when the MCP is carried out, the average calculated losses can be reduced by half, so that, with the exception of the first years, an increase in income of Dfl. 30.--per a.c.p. is anticipated. When less than 12.5 percent of the quarters are infected and less than 2 or 3 per cent of the quarters show clinical mastitis in a period of twelve months, the expected profits of the MCP are less than the cost. When all the farmers (the "sector") reduce the incidence of mastitis, the expected increase in income will be smaller because of price-effects. From the national point of view, the profitability of the MCP will primarily depend on the national-economic net price of the additional milk production, which should be higher than Dfl. 30.--per 100 kg. to make it pay. Finally, it was evident that production of the same quantity of milk by fewer animals, resulting from a reduction of the incidence of mastitis, is profitable on a national level, because of a decrease in the import of concentrates.
动物疾病给荷兰的奶牛业造成了巨大损失。模型计算表明,动物疾病给农场层面造成的损失约为每头奶牛每年440荷兰盾。其中一种疾病(如乳腺炎)正受到越来越多的关注。这种疾病给农场层面造成的年度损失约为每头现存平均奶牛(a.c.p.)125荷兰盾。目前,一项乳腺炎控制计划(MCP)正在推行。在分析MCP的预期利润和成本时,可以区分出不同的经济水平。农场层面的分析表明,实施MCP后,计算出的平均损失可减少一半,因此,除了头几年外,预计每头a.c.p.奶牛的收入将增加30荷兰盾。如果在12个月的时间里,感染的乳腺季度少于12.5%,且出现临床乳腺炎的乳腺季度少于2%或3%,MCP的预期利润将低于成本。当所有农民(“行业”)都降低乳腺炎发病率时,由于价格效应,预期的收入增长将较小。从国家层面来看,MCP的盈利能力将主要取决于新增牛奶产量的国民经济净价格,该价格应高于每100公斤30荷兰盾才能盈利。最后,很明显,由于乳腺炎发病率降低,用更少的奶牛生产相同数量的牛奶在国家层面是有利可图的,因为浓缩饲料的进口减少了。