Evans A W, Verlander N Q
University of London, Centre for Transport Studies, University College London, U.K.
Accid Anal Prev. 1996 Mar;28(2):181-91. doi: 10.1016/0001-4575(95)00057-7.
This paper considers estimates of the number of fatalities per year on rail lines operated by British Railways that could be expected to be saved by the installation of automatic train protection, based on historical data. The authors' preferred estimate is 3.66 fatalities per year, with an estimated 95% confidence interval of 1.44-5.89. It is possible to find orthodox probability distributions that fit the distribution of numbers of fatalities well. FN-graphs are not a suitable means of fitting such distributions.
本文基于历史数据，考量了英国铁路运营线路上每年因安装列车自动防护系统有望挽救的死亡人数估计值。作者们倾向的估计值是每年3.66人死亡，估计的95%置信区间为1.44 - 5.89。可以找到能很好拟合死亡人数分布的正统概率分布。FN图不是拟合此类分布的合适方法。
