Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom.
Accid Anal Prev. 2011 Jan;43(1):391-401. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2010.09.009. Epub 2010 Oct 25.
This paper presents an analysis of fatal train accident rates and trends on Europe's main line railways from 1980 to 2009. The paper uses a new set of data for the European Union together with Norway and Switzerland, assembled partly under the auspices of the European Railway Agency and partly on the author's own account. The estimated overall trend in the number of fatal train collisions and derailments per train-kilometre is -6.3% per year from 1990 to 2009, with a 95% confidence interval of -8.7% to -3.9%. The estimated accident rate in 2009 is 1.35 fatal collisions or derailments per billion train-kilometres, giving an estimated mean number of fatal accidents in 2009 of 6.0. The overall number of fatalities per fatal accident in 1990-2009 is 4.10, with no apparent long term change over time, giving an estimated mean of 24.6 fatalities per year in train collisions and derailments in 2009. There are statistically significant differences in the fatal train accident rates and trends between the different European countries, although the estimates of the rates and trends for many individual countries have wide confidence limits. The distribution of broad causes of accidents appears to have remained unchanged over the long term, so that safety improvements appear to have been across the board, and not focused on any specific cause. The most frequent cause of fatal train collisions and derailments is signals passed at danger. In contrast to fatal train collisions and derailments, the rate per train-kilometre of serious accidents at level crossings remained unchanged in 1990-2009. The immediate causes of most of the serious level crossing accidents are errors or violations by road users.
本文分析了 1980 年至 2009 年期间欧洲干线铁路致命火车事故率和趋势。本文使用了一套新的欧盟数据，其中部分数据是在欧洲铁路管理局的支持下收集的，部分数据是作者自己收集的。从 1990 年到 2009 年，每公里列车公里数的致命列车碰撞和脱轨总数的估计总体趋势为每年减少 6.3%，95%置信区间为-8.7%至-3.9%。2009 年的估计事故率为每十亿列车公里 1.35 次致命碰撞或脱轨，这意味着 2009 年估计的致命事故平均数量为 6.0 起。1990-2009 年每起致命事故的总死亡人数为 4.10 人，随着时间的推移没有明显的长期变化，这意味着 2009 年每年因列车碰撞和脱轨而导致的平均死亡人数为 24.6 人。不同欧洲国家的致命火车事故率和趋势存在统计学上的显著差异，尽管许多国家的这些率和趋势的估计值置信区间很宽。事故的广义原因分布似乎在长期内保持不变，因此安全改进似乎是全面的，而不是针对任何特定的原因。致命列车碰撞和脱轨的最常见原因是信号在危险时通过。与致命列车碰撞和脱轨相比，1990-2009 年平交道口严重事故的每公里列车公里数保持不变。大多数严重平交道口事故的直接原因是道路使用者的错误或违规行为。
