Albert M S, Jones K, Savage C R, Berkman L, Seeman T, Blazer D, Rowe J W
Department of Psychiatry and Neurology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, USA.
Psychol Aging. 1995 Dec;10(4):578-89. doi: 10.1037//0882-7974.10.4.578.
This study used a linear structural relations modeling technique (LISREL) to examine longitudinal data for 1,192 persons from a community-based population. The goal was to test the ability of an a priori model to predict cognitive change over a 2.0- to 2.5-year period in older adults aged 70-79 at the initial evaluation. The model included 22 demographic, physical, and psychosocial variables as predictors of cognitive function and cognitive change. The study used an exploratory-confirmatory design, enabling cross-validation of the model developed in the exploratory set in the confirmatory sample. Structural equation modeling analyses identified 4 endogenous model variable (education, strenuous activity, peak pulmonary expiratory flow rate, and self-efficacy) as direct predictors of cognitive change over the study period.
本研究采用线性结构关系建模技术（LISREL）来检验来自社区人群的1192人的纵向数据。目标是在初始评估时，检验一个先验模型预测70至79岁老年人在2.0至2.5年期间认知变化的能力。该模型纳入了22个人口统计学、身体和心理社会变量，作为认知功能和认知变化的预测因子。本研究采用探索性-验证性设计，能够在验证样本中对探索性样本中开发的模型进行交叉验证。结构方程建模分析确定了4个内生模型变量（教育程度、剧烈活动、最大呼气流量峰值和自我效能感）作为研究期间认知变化的直接预测因子。
