Roberts B W, Newman M E
LASSP, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA.
J Theor Biol. 1996 May 7;180(1):39-54. doi: 10.1006/jtbi.1996.0076.
We present a model for evolution and extinction in large ecosystems. The model incorporates the effects of interactions between species and the influences of abiotic environmental factors. We study the properties of the model by approximate analytic solution and also by numerical simulation, and use it to make predictions about the distribution of extinctions and species lifetimes that we would expect to see in real ecosystems. It should be possible to test these predictions against the fossil record. The model indicates that a possible mechanism for mass extinction is the coincidence of a large coevolutionary avalanche in the ecosystem with a severe environmental disturbance.
我们提出了一个关于大型生态系统中进化与灭绝的模型。该模型纳入了物种间相互作用的影响以及非生物环境因素的作用。我们通过近似解析解和数值模拟来研究该模型的性质，并利用它对我们预期在真实生态系统中看到的灭绝分布和物种寿命进行预测。应该可以根据化石记录来检验这些预测。该模型表明，大规模灭绝的一种可能机制是生态系统中大规模协同进化雪崩与严重环境干扰的巧合。
