Mott P D, King S R, Gavett J W
Public Health Rep. 1977 Jul-Aug;92(4):322-5.
The distribution of physicians can be mapped and shortage areas and the number of physicians needed in them can be determined by use of the simple, inexpensive method described. However, the limitations of the methodology must be borne in mind. One should visualize the physician shortage as only a rough indication of the need for primary health care services. More detailed analysis of each area may be required before a new service is actually established, for example, developing a community profile of the planned service area (age sex mix, income, education, race, occupation, and so on), surveying service-level expectation in the community, or studying patients' use of primary care providers in neighboring areas. Even more important may be the selection among a number of possible choices of service alternatives, such as satellite practices, use of physician's assistants or nurse practitioners, or group practices. Estimates based on simplified data and approximations are useful in leading planners to areas of probable undersupply and in helping them to avoid the problems of oversupply. These estimates identify target areas that appear to have physician shortages and point out where more refined analysis should be concentrated.
通过使用上述简单且成本低廉的方法，可以绘制出医生的分布情况，并确定短缺地区以及这些地区所需的医生数量。然而，必须牢记该方法的局限性。人们应将医生短缺视为对初级卫生保健服务需求的大致指示。在实际建立新服务之前，可能需要对每个地区进行更详细的分析，例如，制定计划服务区域的社区概况（年龄性别构成、收入、教育程度、种族、职业等），调查社区对服务水平的期望，或研究患者在邻近地区对初级保健提供者的利用情况。在众多可能的服务替代方案中进行选择可能更为重要，例如卫星诊所、使用医师助理或执业护士，或团体执业。基于简化数据和近似值的估计有助于引导规划者关注可能供应不足的领域，并帮助他们避免供应过剩的问题。这些估计确定了似乎存在医生短缺的目标区域，并指出了应集中进行更精细分析的地方。
