Whiting R C
Eastern Regional Research Center, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Philadelphia, PA 19118, USA.
Crit Rev Food Sci Nutr. 1995 Nov;35(6):464-94.
Predictive food microbiology is a field of study that combines elements of microbiology, mathematics, and statistics to develop models that describe and predict the growth or decline of microbes under specified environmental conditions. Models can be thought of as having three levels: primary level models describe changes in microbial numbers with time, secondary level models show how the parameters of the primary model vary with environmental conditions, and the tertiary level combines the first two types of models with user-friendly application software or expert systems that calculate microbial behavior under the specified conditions. Primary models include time-to-growth, Gompertz function, exponential growth rate, and inactivation/survival models. Commonly used secondary models are response surface equations and the square root and Arrhenius relationships. Microbial models are valuable tools in planning Hazard Analysis, Critical Control Point (HACCP) programs and making decisions, as they provide the first estimates of expected changes in microbial populations when exposed to a specific set of conditions. This review describes the models currently being developed for food-borne microorganisms, particularly pathogens, and discusses their uses.
预测性食品微生物学是一个研究领域，它结合了微生物学、数学和统计学的元素，以开发描述和预测特定环境条件下微生物生长或衰退的模型。模型可被认为有三个层次：初级模型描述微生物数量随时间的变化，二级模型展示初级模型的参数如何随环境条件变化，三级模型则将前两种类型的模型与用户友好的应用软件或专家系统相结合，这些软件或系统可计算特定条件下的微生物行为。初级模型包括生长时间、冈珀茨函数、指数生长速率以及失活/存活模型。常用的二级模型是响应面方程以及平方根和阿伦尼乌斯关系。微生物模型是规划危害分析与关键控制点（HACCP）计划以及进行决策的宝贵工具，因为当暴露于特定条件集时，它们能提供微生物种群预期变化的初步估计。本综述描述了目前正在为食源微生物，特别是病原体开发的模型，并讨论了它们的用途。
