Rupp K, Stapleton D
Soc Secur Bull. 1995 Winter;58(4):43-70.
This article examines factors affecting the growth in the Social Security Administration's disability programs. We synthesize recent empirical evidence on factors affecting trends in applications and awards for Disability Insurance and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits and duration on the rolls. Econometric analyses of pooled time-series, cross-sectional data for States provide strong evidence of business cycle effects on applications and, to a lesser extent, on awards. Substantial effects of cutbacks in State general assistance programs are also found, especially for SSI. Estimated effects of the aging of the baby boomers, growth in the share of women who are disability insured, the AIDS epidemic, and changes in family structure are also presented. Indirect evidence suggests the importance of programmatic factors, especially for awards, and especially in the mental and musculoskeletal impairment categories. The decline in the average age of new awardees has substantially increased duration, particularly for SSI. As a result, caseload growth would be expected to continue even in the absence of future award growth.
本文探讨了影响社会保障管理局残疾项目增长的因素。我们综合了近期关于影响残疾保险和补充保障收入（SSI）福利申请、获批及在册时长趋势的因素的实证证据。对各州汇总时间序列、横截面数据的计量经济学分析有力证明了商业周期对申请的影响，在较小程度上也影响获批情况。研究还发现州一般援助项目削减产生了重大影响，尤其是对补充保障收入项目。文中还呈现了婴儿潮一代老龄化、残疾参保女性比例增长、艾滋病流行以及家庭结构变化的估计影响。间接证据表明项目因素的重要性，特别是对获批情况而言，在精神和肌肉骨骼损伤类别中尤为如此。新获批者平均年龄的下降大幅增加了在册时长，尤其是补充保障收入项目。因此，即使未来获批人数不再增长，预计案件量仍将持续增加。
