Kramarow E A
Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor 48104-2590, USA.
Demography. 1995 Aug;32(3):335-52.
One of the most dramatic changes in the life of the elderly in the United States in the twentieth century is the rise in the proportion of elderly widows living alone. This paper examines this transformation by comparing the determinants of elderly widows' living alone at four points in time, in 1910, 1940, 1960, and 1990. Logistic regression models of the probability of living alone are estimated. The results of these models are used to calculate the expected proportion of elderly widows living alone in various hypothetical scenarios of social change. This analysis suggests that no single factor is responsible for the rise in living alone among the elderly. Value changes, as represented by a variable for time, are shown to have strong and direct effects on the increased probability of living alone in old age in the late twentieth century, independent of the effect of rising income levels. These results are discussed in light of previous research on living arrangements of the elderly, which articulates demographic, economic, and cultural explanations for change.
20世纪美国老年人生活中最显著的变化之一，是独居老年寡妇比例的上升。本文通过比较1910年、1940年、1960年和1990年这四个时间点上老年寡妇独居的决定因素，来研究这一转变。估计了独居概率的逻辑回归模型。这些模型的结果被用于计算在各种社会变革假设情景下独居老年寡妇的预期比例。该分析表明，没有单一因素导致老年人独居比例上升。以时间变量表示的价值变化，被证明对20世纪后期老年独居概率增加有强烈且直接的影响，与收入水平上升的影响无关。根据先前关于老年人居住安排的研究对这些结果进行了讨论，该研究阐述了变化的人口、经济和文化解释。
