Anderson R M, Garnett G P
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, UK.
Lancet. 1996 Oct 12;348(9033):1010-3. doi: 10.1016/s0140-6736(96)07100-0.
To combat the spread of HIV, progress on vaccine development is eagerly awaited. Haynes in this series has described the progress made so far with various vaccine types. This article describes how mathematical modelling techniques can be used to predict the likely impact of low-efficacy vaccines in community transmission of the virus. The answers are often not what one would predict by intuition alone, and they have great bearing on the likely success of such vaccination strategies.
为了抗击艾滋病毒的传播，人们急切期待疫苗研发取得进展。海恩斯在本系列文章中描述了目前各种疫苗类型所取得的进展。本文介绍了如何运用数学建模技术来预测低效疫苗在该病毒社区传播中可能产生的影响。答案往往并非仅凭直觉就能预测到的，而且它们对于此类疫苗接种策略的可能成功与否有着重大影响。
