Paine R R, Harpending H C
Department of Anthropology, University of Utah, Salt Lake City 84113, USA.
Am J Phys Anthropol. 1996 Oct;101(2):151-9. doi: 10.1002/(SICI)1096-8644(199610)101:2<151::AID-AJPA3>3.0.CO;2-5.
The reliability of published paleodemographic fertility reconstruction methods was assessed using simulated age-at-death distributions and a published cemetery series from a population with known birth rates. In the first test, the Brass ([1971] Biological Aspects of Demography, pp. 69-110) LOGIT models were used to generate 180 simulated skeletal samples of various sizes (N = 50, 100, 250) from hypothetical populations with known demographic rates. The base populations were expanding (r = 0.01), stationary, or declining (r = -0.01), yet all had the same life expectancy. Growth differences resulted from different fertility rates. The simulated skeletal series were then analyzed using the model life table fitting procedure outlined by Paine ([1989a] Am. J. Phys. Anthropol. 79:51-62), three commonly employed age ratio tests (Bocquet-Appel and Masset [1892] J. Hum. Evol. 11:321-333; Buikstra et al. [1986] Am. Antiquity 51:528-546), and one age-at-death ratio not previously published. In the second test the model life table fitting procedure was used to estimate fertility for a historical population, the Newton Plantation, Barbados (Corruccini et al. [1989] Am. Antiquity 54:609-614), with known demographic characteristics.
利用模拟的死亡年龄分布以及一个来自已知出生率人群的已发表墓地系列，评估了已发表的古人口生育率重建方法的可靠性。在第一次测试中，使用布拉斯（[1971年]《人口统计学的生物学方面》，第69 - 110页）逻辑模型，从具有已知人口统计学比率的假设人群中生成180个不同规模（N = 50、100、250）的模拟骨骼样本。基础人群分别为增长型（r = 0.01）、稳定型或衰退型（r = -0.01），但所有人群的预期寿命相同。增长差异源于不同的生育率。然后，使用佩恩（[1989a年]《美国体质人类学杂志》79:51 - 62）概述的模型生命表拟合程序、三种常用的年龄比率测试（博凯 - 阿佩尔和马塞 [1892年]《人类进化杂志》11:321 - 333；布伊克斯特拉等人 [1986年]《美国古代史》51:528 - 546）以及一种此前未发表的死亡年龄比率，对模拟骨骼系列进行分析。在第二次测试中，使用模型生命表拟合程序来估计一个具有已知人口统计学特征的历史人群——巴巴多斯牛顿种植园（科鲁奇尼等人 [1989年]《美国古代史》54:609 - 614）的生育率。
