McMeekin T A, Ross T
Department of Agricultural Science, University of Tasmania, Australia.
Int J Food Microbiol. 1996 Nov;33(1):65-83. doi: 10.1016/0168-1605(96)01138-5.
Although there is rapid progress in the field of chemical detection technology, little of this technology appears to have found application in estimation of the remaining shelf life of foods and early detection of spoilage. Predictive microbiology aims to summarise the probable behaviour of specific spoilage organisms and the progression of spoilage processes in foods. The quantitative knowledge generated in the field of predictive microbiology provides a sound basis for the rational development of devices with which to monitor loss of product shelf life during storage, distribution and retail sale. To predict remaining shelf life accurately it is necessary, however, to consider the microbial ecology of the food system. Aspects of microbial ecology and physiology relevant to the spoilage of foods are briefly reviewed and the potential benefits of the use of predictive microbiology in shelf life estimation are described. These points are exemplified by reference to a modelling program undertaken to develop, validate and 'package' in an easily useable from, models of the effect of temperature, water activity and pH on the growth rate of psychrotrophic spoilage pseudomonads. Necessary properties of devices to monitor loss of shelf life are discussed. 'Bioindicators' are identified as potential monitors of spoilage and suggestions made for their development based on the concept of 'upper limiting bacterial growth' rates, for which preliminary evidence is presented.
尽管化学检测技术领域取得了快速进展，但这项技术似乎很少应用于食品剩余保质期的估计和腐败变质的早期检测。预测微生物学旨在总结特定腐败微生物的可能行为以及食品中腐败过程的进展情况。预测微生物学领域产生的定量知识为合理开发用于监测食品在储存、分销和零售过程中保质期损失的设备提供了坚实基础。然而，要准确预测剩余保质期，有必要考虑食品系统的微生物生态学。本文简要回顾了与食品腐败相关的微生物生态学和生理学方面，并描述了在保质期估计中使用预测微生物学的潜在益处。通过参考一个建模程序来举例说明这些要点，该程序旨在开发、验证并以易于使用的形式“打包”温度、水分活度和pH对嗜冷腐败假单胞菌生长速率影响的模型。讨论了监测保质期损失的设备的必要特性。“生物指示剂”被确定为腐败变质的潜在监测指标，并基于“细菌生长上限”速率的概念对其开发提出了建议，文中还给出了初步证据。
