Kavanagh D J, Sitharthan T, Sayer G P
Department of Psychology, University of Sydney, Australia.
Addiction. 1996 Oct;91(10):1539-45.
Identification of people who will benefit most from brief interventions is an important research challenge in the study of addictive disorders. The current study investigated predictors of response to correspondence interventions for alcohol abuse. We examined both subject retention and alcohol intake over a 12-month period. The primary focus was on the predictive utility of self-efficacy, stages of change and alcohol dependence. Self-efficacy performed relatively well in the study, predicting both retention and later consumption. When predicting 12-month consumption from pretest assessments or examining subject retention over the last 6 months, self-efficacy offered a significant contribution to multivariate analyses. However, in some other predictions a significant effect of self-efficacy was eliminated after the entry of other variables. Stages of change significantly predicted mid-way through treatment, but did not provide an independent prediction of overall retention or treatment response. Neither the degree of alcohol dependence nor level of alcohol problems figured in any of the predictions. Older subjects stayed longer in the study, and those with lower intake and higher pretest self-efficacy had the lowest consumption at 12 months. Results are compared with previous research on prediction of outcomes in addictive disorders.
识别出能从简短干预中获益最大的人群，是成瘾性疾病研究中的一项重要研究挑战。当前的研究调查了针对酒精滥用的书信干预反应的预测因素。我们在12个月的时间里考察了受试者的留存率和酒精摄入量。主要重点在于自我效能感、改变阶段和酒精依赖的预测效用。自我效能感在该研究中表现相对良好，对留存率和后期饮酒量均有预测作用。当从预测试评估预测12个月的饮酒量或考察最后6个月的受试者留存率时，自我效能感对多变量分析有显著贡献。然而，在其他一些预测中，引入其他变量后，自我效能感的显著效应被消除。改变阶段在治疗中期有显著预测作用，但对总体留存率或治疗反应并未提供独立预测。酒精依赖程度和酒精问题水平在任何预测中均未发挥作用。年长的受试者在研究中停留的时间更长，且摄入量较低、预测试自我效能感较高的受试者在12个月时饮酒量最低。研究结果与先前关于成瘾性疾病预后预测的研究进行了比较。
