Woolhouse M E
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, United Kingdom.
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 1996 Nov;55(5 Suppl):144-8. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.1996.55.144.
Mathematical models are potentially valuable aids to a quantitative understanding of schistosome epidemiology and to the design of control programs. A basic theoretical framework is described that is developed to incorporate the impact of acquired immunity, heterogeneous transmission rates, and the effects of control measures. Models that assume that acquired immunity acts to moderate the rate of human infection make predictions consistent with age-intensity data from different human populations. Models incorporating heterogeneous water contact behavior can be applied to suitable field data and used to predict the potential efficacy of targeted chemotherapy or focal molluscicide application. More complex and detailed models can be used in simulation studies to assist with the design of field trials and in the interpretation of data from these trials. These applications of mathematical models suggest several areas requiring further theoretical development and also indicate areas in which adequate field data are still lacking.
数学模型对于定量理解血吸虫病流行病学以及设计控制项目可能具有宝贵的辅助作用。本文描述了一个基本的理论框架，该框架旨在纳入获得性免疫的影响、异质传播率以及控制措施的效果。假设获得性免疫起到调节人类感染率作用的模型所做的预测与来自不同人群的年龄-感染强度数据一致。纳入异质水接触行为的模型可应用于合适的现场数据，并用于预测靶向化疗或局部杀螺剂应用的潜在效果。更复杂和详细的模型可用于模拟研究，以协助现场试验的设计以及解释这些试验的数据。数学模型的这些应用表明了几个需要进一步理论发展的领域，也指出了仍然缺乏足够现场数据的领域。
