Dusenbury R, Fennema MG
Florida State University
Organ Behav Hum Decis Process. 1996 Nov;68(2):109-22. doi: 10.1006/obhd.1996.0093.
In this study, we examine preferences between lotteries with chances presented either numerically or linguistically. Presentation mode is predicted to affect preferences due to the perception of linguistic chance as skewed distributions of risk. Based upon weighting functions incorporating risk/uncertainty aversion from ambiguity theory and cumulative prospect theory, we predict that presentation mode effects on risky choices will be detectable in very small risks and in large risks. In two experiments, subjects chose between both gain and loss lotteries with constant payoffs and equivalent numeric and linguistic chances. Presentation mode affected choices when chances were above 50%, where lotteries with numeric chances were more frequently preferred in gains while lotteries with linguistic chances were more often preferred in losses. The effect of presentation mode for low-chance lotteries (5% and less) also affected choices such that numeric choices were generally preferred more frequently in losses and linguistically expressed choices were generally preferred more often in gains. Overall, these results suggest that theories of the effects of second order uncertainty on risky choice may be used to model decisions involving linguistic risk. They also suggest that the study of the perception of linguistic risk assessments can provide insight into the cognitive processing behind the weighting functions proposed to depict decision under risk and uncertainty. Finally, the results have practical implications since information providers can affect decision makers' choices by controlling presentation mode in such a way as to alter the relative attractiveness of uncertain events.
在本研究中，我们考察了机会以数字形式或语言形式呈现的彩票之间的偏好。由于将语言机会视为风险的偏态分布，预计呈现模式会影响偏好。基于纳入了来自模糊理论和累积前景理论的风险/不确定性厌恶的加权函数，我们预测呈现模式对风险选择的影响在极小风险和极大风险中都将是可检测的。在两项实验中，受试者在具有固定收益和等效数字及语言机会的收益型和损失型彩票之间进行选择。当机会高于50%时，呈现模式会影响选择，在收益情况下，数字机会的彩票更常被偏好，而在损失情况下，语言机会的彩票更常被偏好。低机会彩票（5%及以下）的呈现模式效应也影响了选择，即在损失情况下，数字选择通常更常被偏好，而在收益情况下，语言表达的选择通常更常被偏好。总体而言，这些结果表明，二阶不确定性对风险选择影响的理论可用于对涉及语言风险的决策进行建模。它们还表明，对语言风险评估感知的研究可以深入了解为描述风险和不确定性下的决策而提出的加权函数背后的认知过程。最后，这些结果具有实际意义，因为信息提供者可以通过控制呈现模式来影响决策者的选择，从而改变不确定事件的相对吸引力。
