Larson A, Bammer G
Australian Centre for International and Tropical Health and Nutrition, University of Queensland, Brisbane.
Aust N Z J Public Health. 1996 Oct;20(5):493-9. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-842x.1996.tb01628.x.
There is currently a resurgence of interest in estimating numbers of illicit drug users in Australia. Defining why numbers are needed, who is to be counted and how estimates should be derived are vital steps in the production of useful, valid estimates. We present a range of estimates of heroin users in the Australian Capital Territory which were developed as part of an investigation of the feasibility of prescribing heroin to dependent users. These produced estimates ranging from 433 to 1251 users. We conclude that household surveys, capture-recapture, and multipliers derived from nomination techniques have serious and often unrecognised limitations. Capture-recapture estimates, in particular, are unlikely to be useful, except at a local level. The best way forward for the derivation of national estimates for the National Drug Strategy is a three-pronged approach; national surveys, validated multipliers and monitoring of key indicators by drug-related services and agencies.
目前，澳大利亚再度兴起了对估算非法药物使用者数量的兴趣。明确为何需要这些数字、应统计哪些人以及应如何得出估算值，是得出有用且有效的估算值的关键步骤。我们给出了澳大利亚首都地区海洛因使用者的一系列估算值，这些估算值是作为对向依赖使用者开具海洛因处方的可行性调查的一部分而得出的。这些估算值显示使用者数量在433人至1251人之间。我们得出结论，家庭调查、捕获再捕获法以及源自提名技术的乘数法存在严重且往往未被认识到的局限性。尤其是捕获再捕获法估算值，除了在地方层面外，不太可能有用。为《国家毒品战略》得出全国估算值的最佳方法是采取三管齐下的办法：全国性调查、经过验证的乘数法以及由与毒品相关的服务机构和部门对关键指标进行监测。
