Badley E M, Crotty M
Arthritis Community Research and Evaluation Unit, Wellesley Hospital Research Institute, Toronto, Canada.
J Rheumatol. 1995 Oct;22(10):1934-40.
To illustrate quantitatively the effect of the aging of the population on the prevalence of chronic disorders by comparing the projected frequency of musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders in 3 comparatively "young" countries, Australia, Canada, and the United States, and 3 comparatively "old" countries, France, the United Kingdom, and Sweden.
Age specific rates for MSK disability in Canada were applied to World Bank population estimates and projects to estimate prevalence rates and numbers of persons with MSK disability in the years 1985, 2000, 2010, and 2020.
The age structure of the populations affected baseline rates for MSK disability. Increases in both prevalence and numbers affected are expected for all countries between 1985 and 2020, up to a 34% increase in prevalence in Canada, and an 88% increase in numbers in Australia.
The aging of the population is likely to result in a disproportionate increase in the number of people with chronic disabling disorders, which will be taking place against a background of a decreasing or static number of young adults, with implications for meeting needs for health care and community support.
通过比较3个相对“年轻”的国家（澳大利亚、加拿大和美国）以及3个相对“年老”的国家（法国、英国和瑞典）中肌肉骨骼疾病的预计发病率，定量说明人口老龄化对慢性疾病患病率的影响。
将加拿大特定年龄的肌肉骨骼残疾率应用于世界银行的人口估计和预测，以估计1985年、2000年、2010年和2020年肌肉骨骼残疾的患病率和患病人数。
受影响人群的年龄结构影响了肌肉骨骼残疾的基线发病率。预计1985年至2020年期间所有国家的患病率和受影响人数都会增加，加拿大的患病率最高可增加34%，澳大利亚的人数最多可增加88%。
人口老龄化可能导致慢性致残性疾病患者数量不成比例地增加，而这一情况将在年轻人数量减少或保持不变的背景下发生，这对满足医疗保健和社区支持需求具有影响。
