Mitchell T J, Ostrouchov G, Frome E L, Kerr G D
Computer Science and Mathematics Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee 37831-6367, USA.
Radiat Res. 1997 Feb;147(2):195-207.
Statistical analyses of data from epidemiological studies of workers exposed to radiation have been based on recorded annual radiation doses. It is usually assumed that the annual doses are known exactly, although it is generally recognized that the data contain uncertainty due to measurement error and bias. We propose the use of a probability distribution to describe an individual's dose during a specific period and develop statistical methods for estimating this distribution. The methods take into account the "measurement error" that is produced by the dosimetry system and the bias that was introduced by policies of recording doses below a threshold as zero. The method is applied to a sample of dose histories over the period 1945 to 1955 obtained from hard-copy dosimetry records at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The result of this evaluation raises serious questions about the validity of the historical personnel dosimetry data that are currently being used in studies of the effects of low doses in nuclear industry workers. In particular, it appears that there was a systematic underestimation of doses for ORNL workers. This may result in biased estimates of dose-response coefficients and their standard errors.
对接触辐射工人的流行病学研究数据进行的统计分析一直基于记录的年度辐射剂量。通常假定年度剂量是确切已知的，尽管人们普遍认识到由于测量误差和偏差，数据存在不确定性。我们建议使用概率分布来描述个体在特定时期内的剂量，并开发用于估计此分布的统计方法。这些方法考虑了剂量测定系统产生的“测量误差”以及将低于阈值的剂量记录为零的政策所引入的偏差。该方法应用于1945年至1955年期间从橡树岭国家实验室（ORNL）的硬拷贝剂量测定记录中获得的剂量历史样本。该评估结果对目前在核工业工人低剂量效应研究中使用的历史人员剂量测定数据的有效性提出了严重质疑。特别是，ORNL工人的剂量似乎存在系统性低估。这可能导致剂量反应系数及其标准误差的估计出现偏差。
