Liotta L A, Delisi C, Saidel G, Kleinerman J
Cancer Lett. 1977 Sep;3(3-4):203-8. doi: 10.1016/s0304-3835(77)95675-0.
A mathematical model of the process of metastases is formulated in which the hematogenous metastatic process from a solid tumor is considered to consist of a series of stages. A mathematical expression is obtained for the probability that no metastases will have been established by a characteristic time interval after tumor initiation. The murine T241 fibrosarcoma that rapidly and reproduceably produces pulmonary metastases was studied. Estimates of parameters required for the expression of probability of metastases formation were derived experimentally. The probability remains close to one for a characteristic time at which point it drops to zero. This indicates that at least in this experimental system there is a predictable critical time period beyond which micrometastases are virtually certain to have been formed.
建立了转移过程的数学模型，其中实体瘤的血行转移过程被认为由一系列阶段组成。得出了肿瘤发生后在特征时间间隔内未形成转移的概率的数学表达式。对能快速且可重复产生肺转移的小鼠T241纤维肉瘤进行了研究。通过实验得出了转移形成概率表达式所需参数的估计值。在特征时间内概率接近1，之后降至零。这表明至少在这个实验系统中存在一个可预测的关键时间段，超过这个时间段微转移几乎肯定已经形成。
