Cazelles B, Chau N P
Centre de Bioinformatique, Université Paris, France.
Math Biosci. 1997 Mar;140(2):131-54. doi: 10.1016/s0025-5564(96)00155-1.
Many factors, including therapy and behavioral changes, have modified the course of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in recent years. To include these modifications in HIV/AIDS models, in the absence of appropriate external data sources, changes over time in the parameters can be incorporated by a recursive estimation technique such as the Kalman filter. The Kalman filter accounts for stochastic fluctuations in both the model and the data and provides a means to assess any parameter modifications included in new observations. The Kalman filter approach was applied to a simple differential model to describe the observed HIV/AIDS epidemic in the homo/bisexual male community in Paris (France). This approach gave quantitative information on the time-evolution of some parameters of major epidemiological significance (average transmission rate, mean incubation rate, and basic reproduction rate), which appears quite consistent with the recent epidemiological literature.
近年来，包括治疗和行为改变在内的许多因素改变了艾滋病毒/艾滋病疫情的发展进程。为了在艾滋病毒/艾滋病模型中纳入这些变化，在缺乏适当外部数据源的情况下，可以通过诸如卡尔曼滤波器这样的递归估计技术来纳入参数随时间的变化。卡尔曼滤波器考虑了模型和数据中的随机波动，并提供了一种评估新观测值中包含的任何参数修改的方法。卡尔曼滤波器方法被应用于一个简单的微分模型，以描述在法国巴黎的同性恋/双性恋男性群体中观察到的艾滋病毒/艾滋病疫情。这种方法给出了一些具有主要流行病学意义的参数（平均传播率、平均潜伏期率和基本繁殖率）随时间演变的定量信息，这似乎与最近的流行病学文献相当一致。
