Kalkstein L S, Greene J S
Department of Geography, University of Delaware, Newark 19716, USA.
Environ Health Perspect. 1997 Jan;105(1):84-93. doi: 10.1289/ehp.9710584.
A new air mass-based synoptic procedure is used to evaluate climate/mortality relationships as they presently exist and to estimate how a predicted global warming might alter these values. Forty-four large U.S. cities with metropolitan areas exceeding 1 million in population are analyzed. Sharp increases in mortality are noted in summer for most cities in the East and Midwest when two particular air masses are present. A very warm air mass of maritime origin is most important in the eastern United States, which when present can increase daily mortality by as many as 30 deaths in large cities. A hot, dry air mass is important in many cities, and, although rare in the East, can increase daily mortality by up to 50 deaths. Cities in the South and Southwest show lesser weather/mortality relationships in summer. During winter, air mass-induced increases in mortality are considerably less than in summer. Although daily winter mortality is usually higher than summer, the causes of death that are responsible for most winter mortality do not vary much with temperature. Using models that estimate climate change for the years 2020 and 2050, it is estimated that summer mortality will increase dramatically and winter mortality will decrease slightly, even if people acclimatize to the increased warmth. Thus, a sizable net increase in weather-related mortality is estimated if the climate warms as the models predict.
一种基于气团的新天气分析方法被用于评估当前存在的气候/死亡率关系，并估计预测的全球变暖可能如何改变这些数值。对美国44个人口超过100万的大都市区的大城市进行了分析。当出现两种特定气团时，东部和中西部的大多数城市在夏季死亡率会急剧上升。源自海洋的非常温暖的气团在美国东部最为重要，当它出现时，大城市的每日死亡率可能会增加多达30人。炎热干燥的气团在许多城市很重要，尽管在东部很少见，但可使每日死亡率增加多达50人。南部和西南部的城市在夏季天气/死亡率关系较小。在冬季，气团导致的死亡率增加远低于夏季。虽然冬季每日死亡率通常高于夏季，但导致大多数冬季死亡的死因随温度变化不大。使用估计2020年和2050年气候变化的模型，估计即使人们适应了变暖，夏季死亡率也将大幅上升，冬季死亡率将略有下降。因此，如果气候如模型预测的那样变暖，预计与天气相关的死亡率将有相当大的净增加。
