McNally R J, Alexander F E, Staines A, Cartwright R A
Leukaemia Research Fund Centre for Clinical Epidemiology, University of Leeds, UK.
Int J Epidemiol. 1997 Feb;26(1):32-46. doi: 10.1093/ije/26.1.32.
Various methods of analysis have been used to study age-period-cohort models. The main aim of this paper is to illustrate and compare three such methods. Those of Clayton and Schifflers, Robertson and Boyle, and De Carli and La Vecchia. The main differences between these methods lie in their approach to distinguish between linear-period and linear-cohort effects. Clayton and Schifflers do not attempt to solve this identification problem, whereas Robertson and Boyle, and De Carli and La Vecchia attempt to tackle this question.
In order to study the assumptions and problems of these methods, we analysed data from 2678 subjects aged 30-84 in Yorkshire, UK, who were diagnosed with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) during the period 1978-1991. Loglinear Poisson models were used to examine the effects of age, period and cohort.
All three methods of analysis agree that, after stratification for sex and county, the age-standardized rate has been increasing at about 5% per year. The Robertson-Boyle method differed from the Clayton-Schifflers method in showing a significant non-linear cohort effect, and a significant county-cohort interaction. The method of De Carli-La Vecchia agreed more closely with Clayton-Schifflers than with Robertson-Boyle.
The linear increase in incidence would lead to a doubling of the number of cases within 15 years. There is controversy over whether the identification problem can be solved and should be solved. Many authors would not rely on the results of the methods of Robertson and Boyle, or De Carli and La Vacchia.
已采用各种分析方法来研究年龄-时期-队列模型。本文的主要目的是阐述和比较三种此类方法。即克莱顿和席夫勒斯法、罗伯逊和博伊尔法以及德卡利和拉韦基亚法。这些方法的主要区别在于区分线性时期效应和线性队列效应的方式。克莱顿和席夫勒斯并未试图解决这一识别问题，而罗伯逊和博伊尔以及德卡利和拉韦基亚则试图解决这个问题。
为研究这些方法的假设和问题，我们分析了来自英国约克郡2678名年龄在30 - 84岁之间的受试者的数据，这些受试者在1978 - 1991年期间被诊断为非霍奇金淋巴瘤（NHL）。使用对数线性泊松模型来检验年龄、时期和队列的效应。
所有三种分析方法均一致认为，在按性别和郡进行分层后，年龄标准化发病率以每年约5%的速度上升。罗伯逊 - 博伊尔法与克莱顿 - 席夫勒斯法不同，显示出显著的非线性队列效应以及显著的郡 - 队列交互作用。德卡利 - 拉韦基亚法与克莱顿 - 席夫勒斯法的一致性比与罗伯逊 - 博伊尔法的一致性更高。
发病率的线性上升将导致病例数在15年内翻倍。关于识别问题是否能够以及是否应该得到解决存在争议。许多作者不会依赖罗伯逊和博伊尔法或德卡利和拉瓦基亚法的结果。
