Pollán M, López-Abente G, Moreno C, Vergara A, Aragonés N, Ruiz M, Ardanaz E, Moreo P
Cancer Epidemiology Unit, National Center for Epidemiology, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain.
Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 1998 Jul;7(7):621-5.
Incidence trends in non-Hodgkin's lymphomas for the period 1973-1991 were studied using data from Spain's Zaragoza and Navarre registries. The overall rate of increase was 5.8% per year. Age-period-cohort models were used, also including sex and registry as explanatory variables. In these models, the variable period was categorized according to the observed changes in diagnostic availability during the length of the study. Non-Hodgkin's lymphomas increased with age, and rates were 31% lower in women. Incidence was almost 50% higher in Navarre, but differences in registry procedures might account for this discrepancy. The rise affects all adult age groups and seems to be the result of changes related not only to the period of diagnosis, mainly ascribable to improvements in diagnostic and coding practices, but also to the birth cohort. According to the model, the risk increased with on-coming generations at a rate of 1.5% per year. The AIDS epidemic in Spain is unable to explain this trend, although it may well exert a stronger influence in the future. Additional knowledge is required to understand the observed rise and to prevent the growing numbers of cases that are expected in years to come.
利用西班牙萨拉戈萨和纳瓦拉登记处的数据，对1973年至1991年期间非霍奇金淋巴瘤的发病率趋势进行了研究。总体增长率为每年5.8%。使用了年龄-时期-队列模型，还将性别和登记处作为解释变量纳入其中。在这些模型中，根据研究期间观察到的诊断可及性变化对时期变量进行了分类。非霍奇金淋巴瘤的发病率随年龄增长而上升，女性发病率低31%。纳瓦拉的发病率几乎高出50%，但登记程序的差异可能是造成这种差异的原因。发病率上升影响到所有成年年龄组，这似乎不仅是诊断时期变化的结果，主要归因于诊断和编码实践的改进，也是出生队列变化的结果。根据该模型，风险随着后代的出现以每年1.5%的速度增加。西班牙的艾滋病疫情无法解释这一趋势，尽管未来它可能会产生更大的影响。需要更多的知识来理解观察到的上升趋势，并预防未来几年预计会增加的病例数。
