Lee R D
Demography. 1977 Nov;14(4):455-79.
This paper develops a stock adjustment model relating total expected births to conventional aggregate fertility rated for married women over 25. Each year, cohorts bear about 20 percent of their additional expected births. Aggregate U.S. rates have been consistent with expectations as expressed in surveys between 1955 and 1975; indeed, total expected births may be inferred from aggregate fertility behavior. A peculiar empirical finding is that the additional expected fertility of nonterminators has not changed since 1955, despite the dramatic decline in total expected and actual fertility. The model leads to a dynamic expression for the duration pattern of current and cumulative fertility and for the proportion of couples who have terminated childbearing. The model is also used to analyze the effects of changing contraceptive failure rates on fertility patterns. For example, a decline in "timing" failure rates increases duration-specific fertility five years later.
本文建立了一个库存调整模型，该模型将预期出生总数与25岁以上已婚妇女的常规总生育率联系起来。每年人口队列生育的预期出生数约为本年度需额外生育预期数20％。1955年与1975年调查显示，美国总生育率与预期相符；实际上，预期出生总数可从总生育行为中推断得出。一个特殊的实证发现是，自1955年以来，未终止生育者的额外预期生育率并未改变，尽管预期出生总数和实际生育率都急剧下降。该模型得出了当前生育和累积生育持续时间模式以及已终止生育夫妇比例的动态表达式。该模型还用于分析避孕失败率变化对生育模式的影响。例如，“时机”失败率的下降会使五年后的特定持续时间生育率增加。
