Lord C C, Woolhouse M E, Mellor P S
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, UK.
Vaccine. 1997 Apr;15(5):519-24. doi: 10.1016/s0264-410x(97)00220-x.
A simulation model including two hosts (horses and donkeys) and one vector (Culicoides imicola) for African horse sickness in Spain is extended to consider vaccination strategies. If hosts were protected prior to virus introduction, elimination of simulated epidemics was related nonlinearly to the fraction protected. Protecting donkeys as well as horses increased the effectiveness of vaccination. Prevention of 50% of epidemics required 75% coverage of horses and donkeys or 90% coverage of horses only. Protection after the introduction of the virus was rarely successful in preventing outbreaks. If horses alone were protected, the number of donkeys was the most significant factor determining the level of protection needed to prevent an epidemic. If both hosts were protected, the abundance of other hosts for vector blood meals was the most significant factor. These results suggest that prophylactic vaccination of both horses and donkeys with high coverage is necessary to prevent outbreaks of African horse sickness in Spain.
一个包含西班牙非洲马瘟的两个宿主（马和驴）及一个媒介（库蠓）的模拟模型被扩展以考虑疫苗接种策略。如果宿主在病毒引入之前得到保护，模拟疫情的消除与受保护的比例呈非线性关系。保护驴以及马可提高疫苗接种的有效性。预防50%的疫情需要75%的马和驴接种疫苗，或者仅90%的马接种疫苗。在病毒引入后进行保护很少能成功预防疫情爆发。如果仅保护马，驴的数量是决定预防疫情所需保护水平的最重要因素。如果两个宿主都得到保护，媒介吸食血液的其他宿主的数量是最重要因素。这些结果表明，对马和驴进行高覆盖率的预防性疫苗接种对于预防西班牙非洲马瘟的爆发是必要的。
