Korenman S, Goldman N, Fu H
School of Public Affairs, Baruch College, City University of New York, NY, USA.
Am J Epidemiol. 1997 Jun 1;145(11):995-1002. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a009068.
Prospective studies that examine marital status differences in health and mortality frequently fail to update information on marital status in statistical models. The authors illustrate how the resulting misclassification of marital status can produce substantial bias in estimates of bereavement effects associated with widowhood. They use as their main source of data the Longitudinal Study of Aging (LSOA), 1984-1990, a national survey of persons aged 70 years and older. The estimates are based primarily on 3,192 respondents who were married and cohabiting with their spouses at the time of the baseline survey and who could be matched to their spouses' records. Comparisons of widowhood status derived from matched spouse records with reported marital status recorded in LSOA interviews demonstrate that reliance on interview information leads to substantial misclassification of marital status. Results from survival models indicate that estimates of marital status effects are sensitive to whether and how marital status is updated after baseline interviews. For example, updating marital status in hazard models from interview information alone indicates a protective effect of widowhood, whereas classifying widowhood on the basis of spouses' death records reveals a significant bereavement effect (relative mortality risks between 1.3 and 1.4).
那些研究婚姻状况在健康和死亡率方面差异的前瞻性研究，在统计模型中常常未能更新婚姻状况信息。作者阐述了由此导致的婚姻状况错误分类如何能在与丧偶相关的丧亲效应估计中产生实质性偏差。他们将1984 - 1990年的老龄化纵向研究（LSOA）作为主要数据来源，这是一项针对70岁及以上人群的全国性调查。这些估计主要基于3192名受访者，他们在基线调查时已婚并与配偶同居，且能够与他们配偶的记录相匹配。将匹配的配偶记录得出的丧偶状况与LSOA访谈中记录的报告婚姻状况进行比较表明，依赖访谈信息会导致婚姻状况的大量错误分类。生存模型的结果表明，婚姻状况效应的估计对基线访谈后婚姻状况是否更新以及如何更新很敏感。例如，仅根据访谈信息在风险模型中更新婚姻状况表明丧偶有保护作用，而根据配偶的死亡记录对丧偶进行分类则显示出显著的丧亲效应（相对死亡风险在1.3至1.4之间）。
