Predictors of tooth loss over 10 years in adult and elderly Chinese.

This study describes the incidence of tooth loss over a 10-year period in a population of rural Chinese, initially aged between 20 and 80 years. Among the 587 persons who participated in a baseline examination in 1984, 440 persons were available for a follow-up study in 1994. A total of 31 persons, mainly aged 50+ years at baseline, had become completely edentulous. Between 45% and 96% of the persons lost at least one tooth, and the average number of teeth lost ranged between 1.0 and 7.2. The distribution of the number of teeth lost was skew, indicating that a minor group of subjects had a substantially higher risk of tooth loss than the majority. Logistic regression analysis identified six significant predictors of tooth loss among those who remained dentate: age, a high number of teeth with dentinal caries lesions, a high number of teeth with caries lesions of any type, presence of teeth with attachment loss > or = 7 mm, presence of mobile teeth, and a low percentage of sites with subgingival calculus deposits. At the subject level, caries variables and periodontal disease variables seemed equally important predictors of the incidence of tooth loss over 10 years, but at the tooth level caries was a predominant cause of tooth loss in all age groups.