van Noord P A, Dubas J S, Dorland M, Boersma H, te Velde E
Utrecht University, The Netherlands.
Fertil Steril. 1997 Jul;68(1):95-102. doi: 10.1016/s0015-0282(97)81482-3.
To verify whether a population-based hypothesis (age at menarche and age at natural menopause have an inverse relationship) also applies at the level of the individual and to investigate what other factors predict age at natural menopause.
Prospective cohort study (the Doorlopend Onderzoek Morbiditeit/Mortaliteit [DOM] project).
Prevention Breast Cancer Screening Centre, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
PATIENT(S): A cohort of 3,756 Dutch women, born between 1911 and 1925, participating in a population-based breast cancer screening program, who experienced a natural menopause. Three samples of women were studied: a sample who did not use oral contraceptives (OCs) (n = 3,347), a sample of OC users (n = 409), and a combined sample of OC users and nonusers (n = 3,756).
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Age at menopause and menarche, fertility patterns, OC use, height, weight, smoking, and demographic variables.
RESULT(S): No relation was found between age at menarche and age at natural menopause. The total percentage of variance in age at natural menopause explained by multiple regression including all factors was minimal, ranging from 1.3% to 9.7% in OC users. Linear regression analysis indicated a slight secular trend in age at menopause.
CONCLUSION(S): Frisch's hypothesis could not be corroborated at the individual level. These results suggest that age at menarche and menopause should be treated as independent risk factors for breast cancer. Modification of age at menopause by lifestyle factors (except possibly for OC use) appears minimal.
验证基于人群的假设（初潮年龄与自然绝经年龄呈反比关系）在个体层面是否也适用，并调查还有哪些其他因素可预测自然绝经年龄。
前瞻性队列研究（持续性发病率/死亡率研究[DOM]项目）。
荷兰乌得勒支预防乳腺癌筛查中心。
一组3756名荷兰女性，出生于1911年至1925年之间，参与基于人群的乳腺癌筛查项目，且经历了自然绝经。对三组女性样本进行了研究：未使用口服避孕药（OC）的样本（n = 3347）、使用OC的样本（n = 409）以及使用OC者与未使用者的合并样本（n = 3756）。
绝经和初潮年龄、生育模式、OC使用情况、身高、体重、吸烟情况及人口统计学变量。
未发现初潮年龄与自然绝经年龄之间存在关联。包括所有因素的多元回归所解释的自然绝经年龄方差总百分比极小，在使用OC者中为1.3%至9.7%。线性回归分析表明绝经年龄存在轻微的长期趋势。
弗里施假设在个体层面未得到证实。这些结果表明，初潮年龄和绝经年龄应被视为乳腺癌的独立危险因素。生活方式因素（可能除了OC使用外）对绝经年龄的影响似乎极小。
