Mount G A, Haile D G, Daniels E
Medical and Veterinary Entomology Research Laboratory, USDA-ARS, Gainesville, FL 32604, USA.
J Med Entomol. 1997 Jul;34(4):461-84. doi: 10.1093/jmedent/34.4.461.
A model (LYMESIM) was developed for computer simulation of blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis Say, population dynamics and transmission of the Lyme disease agent. Borrelia burgdorferi Johnson. Schmid, Hyde, Steigerwalt & Brenner, LYMESIM simulates the effects of ambient temperature, saturation deficit, precipitation, habitat type, and host type and density on tick populations. Epidemiological parameters including host infectivity, tick infectivity, transovarial transmission, and transstadial transmission are included in the model to simulate transmission of the Lyme disease spirochete between vector ticks and vertebrate hosts. Validity of LYMESIM was established by comparing simulated and observed populations of immature I. scapularis on white-footed mice. Peromyscus leucopus, (Rafinesque), at 2 locations in Massachusetts. Validity also was indicated by comparisons of simulated and observed seasonality of blacklegged ticks in New York, Massachusetts, Florida, and Oklahoma-Arkansas. Further model validity was shown by correlation between simulated and observed numbers of immature ticks engorging on white-footed mice at 3 sites in Massachusetts. The model produced acceptable values for initial population growth rate, generation time, and 20-yr population density when historical meteorological data for 16 locations in eastern North America were used. Realistic rates of infection in ticks were produced for locations in the northeastern and northcentral United States. LYMESIM was used to study the effect of white-footed mouse and white-tailed deer, Odocoileus virginianus (Zimmerman), densities on tick density and infection rates. The model was also used to estimate tick density thresholds for maintenance of B. burgdorferi.
开发了一个模型（LYMESIM），用于对黑腿蜱（肩突硬蜱，学名Ixodes scapularis Say）的种群动态以及莱姆病病原体的传播进行计算机模拟。莱姆病病原体为伯氏疏螺旋体（学名Borrelia burgdorferi Johnson、Schmid、Hyde、Steigerwalt & Brenner），LYMESIM模拟环境温度、饱和差、降水量、栖息地类型以及宿主类型和密度对蜱虫种群的影响。该模型纳入了包括宿主感染性、蜱虫感染性、经卵传播和经变态期传播在内的流行病学参数，以模拟莱姆病螺旋体在媒介蜱虫与脊椎动物宿主之间的传播。通过比较马萨诸塞州两个地点白足鼠（学名Peromyscus leucopus，由拉菲内斯克命名）上未成熟肩突硬蜱的模拟种群和观察种群，确立了LYMESIM的有效性。纽约、马萨诸塞州、佛罗里达州以及俄克拉何马州 - 阿肯色州黑腿蜱模拟季节性和观察季节性的比较也表明了该模型的有效性。马萨诸塞州三个地点白足鼠上饱血未成熟蜱虫模拟数量与观察数量之间的相关性进一步证明了模型的有效性。当使用北美东部16个地点的历史气象数据时，该模型得出了可接受的初始种群增长率、世代时间和20年种群密度值。在美国东北部和中北部的地点产生了符合实际情况的蜱虫感染率。LYMESIM被用于研究白足鼠和白尾鹿（学名Odocoileus virginianus，由齐默尔曼命名）的密度对蜱虫密度和感染率的影响。该模型还用于估计维持伯氏疏螺旋体所需的蜱虫密度阈值。
