[Paradoxical welfare perception by the baby boom generation around 2025. 3 scenarios for pension and care].

Public pension (AOW), supplementary pensions and care-arrangements together constitute the important financial arrangements for the elderly in the Netherlands. The ageing process jeopardizes them all, although the uncertainty about the future development of supplementary pensions is huge. The problems with the care provision will probably be bigger than those for the public pension, because other factors (like age-dependent use of care and insufficient growth of labour productivity in the care sector) add to the growth of expenses due to the rising share of elderly persons in the population. Therefore, contributions of the elderly will be necessary, collectively or individually. A growing standard of living, shifting the criteria for an acceptable minimum standard, both in income and care, sets a major problem. The consequences of changes in the standard of living and in the perception of acceptable minimal standards are explored in three scenarios. If the standard of living does not grow much (scenario 1), future elderly persons will be more prosperous compared to younger individuals and their capacity to contribute to the growing expenses for care will grow. If however the standard of living grows strongly (scenario 2 and 3), future elderly persons will impoverish compared to younger adults. Furthermore, their ability to pay will diminish. This is even more so the case, as in this situation the prices of care will be higher. If the public pension becomes the most important component in the pension system, the incomes of most retired people will be near a relatively high social minimum level. However, if supplementary pensions become most important, the differences in wealth within the retired population will be marked.