Warnick L D, Erb H N, White M E
Department of Clinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA.
Prev Vet Med. 1997 Aug;31(3-4):263-73. doi: 10.1016/s0167-5877(96)01105-1.
The association of owner-diagnosed calfhood diseases with the length of herd life after calving was evaluated using data collected prospectively over a ten-year period in 25 New York Holstein dairy herds. Herds selected for the study were milking between 35 and 200 Holstein cows, used dairy herd improvement records, bred cows by artificial insemination unless they needed three or more services, and had regularly-scheduled herd health visits by clinicians from the Cornell University College of Veterinary Medicine. Owners recorded occurrences of dullness, respiratory disease, and scours from birth through 90 days of age for all heifer calves that lived at least 24 h and were to be kept as replacements. Milking herd life was measured as the difference between the age at first calving and the age at death or sale. Data on cows sold when the herd went out of business or still in the herd at the end of the study were censored observations. Cox's proportional hazards model was used for statistical analysis of the data. Controlling for age at first calving, study month of birth, and sire predicted difference for milk, there was no statistically significant association of calfhood morbidity with length of herd life. The estimated hazard rate ratios for leaving the milking herd and 95% confidence intervals for dullness, respiratory disease, and scours within 90 days of birth were 1.3 (0.9, 1.9), 0.9 (0.6, 1.3), and 1.0 (0.8, 1.3), respectively. Dullness was the only disease category with an estimated hazard rate ratio greater than 1, and although it was not statistically significant, may warrant evaluation in future studies of long term effects of calfhood morbidity.
利用在10年期间前瞻性收集的25个纽约荷斯坦奶牛场的数据,评估了畜主诊断的犊牛期疾病与产犊后牛群寿命长短之间的关联。入选该研究的牛场有35至200头荷斯坦奶牛正在产奶,使用奶牛群改良记录,除非需要三次或更多次输精,否则通过人工授精繁育母牛,并且康奈尔大学兽医学院的临床医生会定期对牛群进行健康检查。畜主记录了所有存活至少24小时并将留作后备母牛的小母牛犊从出生到90日龄期间出现的精神沉郁、呼吸道疾病和腹泻情况。挤奶牛群寿命以首次产犊年龄与死亡或出售年龄之差来衡量。对于在牛场停业时售出或在研究结束时仍留在牛群中的奶牛的数据为截尾观察值。使用Cox比例风险模型对数据进行统计分析。在控制首次产犊年龄、出生研究月份和 sire预测的牛奶差异后,犊牛期发病率与牛群寿命长短之间没有统计学上的显著关联。出生后90天内离开挤奶牛群的估计风险率比以及精神沉郁、呼吸道疾病和腹泻的95%置信区间分别为1.3(0.9,1.9)、0.9(0.6,1.3)和1.0(0.8,1.3)。精神沉郁是唯一估计风险率比大于1的疾病类别,尽管它没有统计学显著性,但可能值得在未来关于犊牛期发病率长期影响的研究中进行评估。