Bairagi R, Shuaib M, Hill A G
Population Studies Centre, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Demography. 1997 Aug;34(3):411-20.
The Preceding Birth Technique (PBT) has been proposed as a method suitable for ascertaining the prevailing level of under-2 mortality in countries without full vital registration. It is a monitoring tool rather than a method that will replace other established approaches to measuring childhood mortality levels and differentials that other demographers have developed over the last 30 years. The principle obstacle to the wider adoption of the PBT is the low proportion of women who give birth in maternity clinics and hospitals. A larger proportion of mothers, however, visit clinics and hospitals for antenatal care and to vaccinate their newborn. We used data from the Matlab surveillance system to test the accuracy of mortality estimates derived using the PBT with data obtained from mothers at antenatal visits and at the vaccination of their youngest children. The study shows that the PBT estimates under-3 rather than under-2 mortality in Bangladesh due to the long birth intervals. The data when used to stimulate the collection of the information at antenatal or postnatal visits, nonetheless provide an accurate description of under-3 mortality trends and differences for the two periods examined--before 1984 and before 1989.
先前出生技术（PBT）已被提议作为一种适合在没有完整生命登记的国家确定2岁以下儿童死亡率普遍水平的方法。它是一种监测工具，而非一种将取代其他人口统计学家在过去30年中开发的用于衡量儿童死亡率水平及差异的既定方法。PBT更广泛应用的主要障碍是在产科诊所和医院分娩的女性比例较低。然而，有更大比例的母亲会前往诊所和医院进行产前检查并为新生儿接种疫苗。我们使用来自Matlab监测系统的数据，以检验利用PBT得出的死亡率估计值与从母亲产前检查及为其最小孩子接种疫苗时获取的数据之间的准确性。研究表明，由于生育间隔较长，在孟加拉国PBT估计的是3岁以下而非2岁以下儿童的死亡率。不过，这些数据在用于模拟产前或产后访视时信息收集情况时，能准确描述所研究的两个时期（1984年之前和1989年之前）3岁以下儿童死亡率的趋势及差异。
