Roosendaal R, Kuipers E J, Buitenwerf J, van Uffelen C, Meuwissen S G, van Kamp G J, Vandenbroucke-Grauls C M
Department of Clinical Microbiology and Infection Control, University Hospital Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Am J Gastroenterol. 1997 Sep;92(9):1480-2.
To investigate whether the decrease in rate of Helicobacter pylori infection in subsequent birth cohorts has continued during the last decades.
Determination by ELISA of IgG H. pylori antibodies in 314 serum samples from Dutch children (age 6-8 yr, n = 154) and young adolescents (age 12-15 yr, n = 160), collected in 1978 and 1993.
The prevalence of H. pylori declined from 19% to 9% at age 6-8 yr and from 23% to 11% at age 12-15 yr. For the whole study population, a decline from 21% to 10% (p = 0.01) was observed between 1978 and 1993. On the basis of these data and an incidence of infection with H. pylori of 0.3% per year during the same period, a model for both past and future prevalence rates of H. pylori in the Dutch population was calculated. The outcome demonstrates a decrease from more than 50% around World War II to less than 20% for the whole population around year 2040.
H. pylori infection rates in childhood have continued to decline until recent decades, demonstrating a persistent birth cohort effect. This decline will result in a very low prevalence of H. pylori infection in the Dutch population during the next decades, becoming even lower as the observed decline in children and young adolescents continues.
调查在过去几十年中，后续出生队列中幽门螺杆菌感染率的下降趋势是否持续。
采用酶联免疫吸附测定法（ELISA）检测1978年和1993年收集的314份荷兰儿童（6 - 8岁，n = 154）和青少年（12 - 15岁，n = 160）血清样本中的幽门螺杆菌IgG抗体。
6 - 8岁儿童幽门螺杆菌感染率从19%降至9%，12 - 15岁青少年从23%降至11%。在整个研究人群中，1978年至1993年间感染率从21%降至10%（p = 0.01）。基于这些数据以及同期每年0.3%的幽门螺杆菌感染发病率，计算了荷兰人群过去和未来幽门螺杆菌感染率的模型。结果显示，从第二次世界大战期间超过50%降至2040年左右全人群低于20%。
直到最近几十年，儿童期幽门螺杆菌感染率持续下降，显示出持续的出生队列效应。这种下降将导致未来几十年荷兰人群中幽门螺杆菌感染率非常低，随着观察到的儿童和青少年感染率持续下降，感染率会更低。
