Integration of treatment and posttreatment variables in predicting results of abstinence-based outpatient treatment after one year.

A multi-site, longitudinal study of patients undergoing outpatient alcohol and drug dependence treatment was conducted in private outpatient facilities, consisting of 2,029 subjects from 33 independent programs enrolled in a national addiction treatment outcomes registry. Pretreatment demographic and substance variables, treatment utilization variables, and post-treatment continuum of care variables were examined simultaneously in a multivariate prediction context for association with outcome. Upon admission patients provided history information to treatment staff trained in the collection of data for the evaluation efforts. Trained interviewers conducted consecutive structured interviews prospectively for treatment outcome at six- and 12-month follow-up periods. Multivariate analysis with stepwise multiple regression indicated that, relatively speaking, the most powerful predictors of treatment outcome were posttreatment variables: namely, support group attendance and involvement in a continuing care program. Pretreatment and treatment variables contributed proportionately little to the prediction of outcome. Additional sequential-stage analysis showed that the incremental contribution to prediction by posttreatment attendance at Alcoholics Anonymous and involvement in a treatment program following discharge far exceeded the initial predictive validity of the 14 pretreatment and treatment variables examined. Participation in posttreatment continuing care correlated with statistically significant reductions in job absenteeism, inpatient hospitalizations, and arrest rates. Posttreatment more than pretreatment factors may be decisive in influencing risk for relapse.