Bailey N T
Chalet Chrine, Lauenen, Switzerland.
Stat Med. 1997 Nov 15;16(21):2447-58. doi: 10.1002/(sici)1097-0258(19971115)16:21<2447::aid-sim681>3.0.co;2-w.
A revised assessment of the HIV/AIDS incubation period has been made, based on an updated operational model that includes a very short early period of high infectivity, following recent work by Jacquez et al. and using AIDS incidence data from the San Francisco Department of Public Health, plus data on AIDS incidence and HIV prevalence in a specially recruited cohort from the San Francisco City Clinic. The incubation period has, approximately, a suitably scaled gamma distribution with 14 degrees of freedom and mean 12.8 (SE 0.2) years. This information is essential in interpreting data from other areas and regions where AIDS incidence figures only are available, and is in particular intended for applications to several countries in Europe.
基于一个更新的操作模型，对艾滋病毒/艾滋病潜伏期进行了重新评估。该模型纳入了近期雅克兹等人的研究成果，即存在一个传染性极高的非常短的早期阶段，并使用了旧金山市公共卫生部的艾滋病发病率数据，以及来自旧金山城市诊所一个特别招募队列的艾滋病发病率和艾滋病毒流行率数据。潜伏期大致呈自由度为14、均值为12.8（标准误0.2）年且经过适当缩放的伽马分布。这些信息对于解读仅能获取艾滋病发病率数据的其他地区和区域的数据至关重要，尤其适用于欧洲的多个国家。
