Burdorf A, Barendregt J J, Swuste P H, Heederik D J
Erasmus Universiteit, Instituut Maatschappelijke Gezondheidszorg, Rotterdam.
Ned Tijdschr Geneeskd. 1997 May 31;141(22):1093-8.
To estimate the future course of mesothelioma mortality as a result of occupational exposure to asbestos in the past.
Cohort age model.
Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
A cohort age model was developed, based upon age-specific rates of pleural mesothelioma mortality during 1969-1994. This model was linked to the future trend in mortality among Dutch men as projected by the Central Bureau for Statistics in order to predict the future course of mesothelioma mortality in the period 1995-2030.
In the next 35 years about 20,000 cases of pleural mesothelioma among men are expected. The projection results in a peak of annual male mesothelioma deaths of approximately 700 in about the year 2018. After 2020 the annual mortality will rapidly decline to about 450 cases in 2030. It is expected that this rapid decline will continue after 2030. In the 1943-1947 birth cohort pleural mesothelioma may account for 0.87% of all deaths. Exposure to asbestos at work largely explains this particular mortality pattern.
Exposure to asbestos at work has created an important public health problem among Dutch men.
评估过去职业性接触石棉导致的间皮瘤死亡率的未来发展趋势。
队列年龄模型。
荷兰鹿特丹伊拉斯姆斯大学公共卫生系。
基于1969 - 1994年间特定年龄组的胸膜间皮瘤死亡率建立队列年龄模型。该模型与荷兰中央统计局预测的荷兰男性未来死亡率趋势相关联，以预测1995 - 2030年间间皮瘤死亡率的未来发展趋势。
在未来35年中，预计男性胸膜间皮瘤病例约20000例。预测结果显示，大约在2018年男性间皮瘤年度死亡人数将达到峰值，约700人。2020年后，年度死亡率将迅速下降，到2030年约为450例。预计2030年后这种快速下降趋势将持续。在1943 - 1947年出生队列中，胸膜间皮瘤可能占所有死亡人数的0.87%。工作中接触石棉很大程度上解释了这种特殊的死亡率模式。
工作中接触石棉在荷兰男性中引发了一个重要的公共卫生问题。
