Keeling M J, Grenfell B T
Zoology Department, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom.
Math Biosci. 1998 Jan 15;147(2):207-26. doi: 10.1016/s0025-5564(97)00101-6.
The effects of the mean infection (incubation plus infectious) period on the dynamics of infectious diseases are well understood. We examine the dynamics and persistence of epidemics when the distribution of the infection period also is modelled, using the well-documented childhood disease measles as a test case. We pay particular attention to the differences between exponentially distributed and constant periods. The use of constant periods increases the persistence of epidemics by reducing the individual stochasticity. The infection period distribution is also shown to have a significant effect on the spatial spread of disease.
平均感染（潜伏期加传染期）时长对传染病动态的影响已得到充分理解。我们以记录详尽的儿童疾病麻疹为例，研究当感染期分布也被纳入模型时传染病的动态和持续性。我们特别关注指数分布和固定时长之间的差异。固定时长的使用通过降低个体随机性增加了疫情的持续性。感染期分布也被证明对疾病的空间传播有显著影响。
