Feng Z, Thieme H R
Department of Mathematics, Arizona State University, Tempe, USA.
Math Biosci. 1995 Jul-Aug;128(1-2):93-130. doi: 10.1016/0025-5564(94)00069-c.
The recurrent outbreaks of measles and other childhood diseases have previously been explained by an interaction of intrinsic epidemiologic forces generating dampened oscillations and of seasonal and/or stochastic excitation. We show that isolation (i.e., sick individuals stay at home and have a reduced infective impact) can create self-sustained oscillations provided that the number of per capita contacts is largely independent of the number of individuals present. This means that the bilinear mass action term for disease incidence is modified by dividing it by the number of nonisolated individuals.
麻疹和其他儿童疾病的反复爆发，此前一直被解释为内在流行病学力量相互作用产生阻尼振荡，以及季节性和/或随机激发的结果。我们表明，隔离（即患病个体居家，其感染影响降低）能够产生自持振荡，前提是人均接触数在很大程度上与在场个体数量无关。这意味着，疾病发病率的双线性质量作用项通过除以未隔离个体数来修正。
