Bouma M J, Poveda G, Rojas W, Chavasse D, Quiñones M, Cox J, Patz J
DFID Malaria Programme, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK.
Trop Med Int Health. 1997 Dec;2(12):1122-7. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-3156.1997.d01-210.x.
The interannual variation in malaria cases in Colombia between 1960 and 1992 shows a close association with a periodic climatic phenomenon known as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Compared with other years, malaria cases increased by 17.3% during a Niño year and by 35.1% in the post-Niño year. The annual total number of malaria cases is also strongly correlated (r = 0.62, P < 0.001) with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific, a principal parameter of ENSO. The strong relation between malaria and ENSO in Colombia can be used to predict high and low-risk years for malaria with sufficient time to mobilize resources to reduce the impact of epidemics. In view of the current El Niño conditions, we anticipate an increase in malaria cases in Colombia in 1998. Further studies to elucidate the mechanisms which underlie the association are required. As Colombia has a wide range of climatic conditions, regional studies relating climate and vector ecology to malaria incidence may further improve an ENSO-based early warning system. Predicting malaria risk associated with ENSO and related climate variables may also serve as a short-term analogue for predicting longer-term effects posed by global climate change.
1960年至1992年期间，哥伦比亚疟疾病例的年际变化与一种名为厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）的周期性气候现象密切相关。与其他年份相比，在厄尔尼诺年期间疟疾病例增加了17.3%，在厄尔尼诺年后的年份增加了35.1%。疟疾病例的年度总数也与赤道东太平洋的海表温度（SST）异常密切相关（r = 0.62，P < 0.001），而海表温度异常是ENSO的一个主要参数。哥伦比亚疟疾与ENSO之间的紧密关系可用于预测疟疾的高风险和低风险年份，并有足够的时间调动资源以减少疫情的影响。鉴于当前的厄尔尼诺状况，我们预计1998年哥伦比亚的疟疾病例将会增加。需要进一步开展研究以阐明这种关联背后的机制。由于哥伦比亚拥有广泛的气候条件，将气候和媒介生态与疟疾发病率相关联的区域研究可能会进一步完善基于ENSO的早期预警系统。预测与ENSO及相关气候变量相关的疟疾风险，也可作为预测全球气候变化带来的长期影响的短期类比。
