厄尔尼诺现象和其他气候驱动因素对埃塞俄比亚流行疟疾的影响：国家卫生适应计划的新工具。

El Niño and other climatic drivers of epidemic malaria in Ethiopia: new tools for national health adaptation plans.

机构信息

Ethiopian Public Health Institute, P.O. Box 1242/5654, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, PO Box 1000, Palisades, NY, 10964, USA.

出版信息

Malar J. 2023 Jun 24;22(1):195. doi: 10.1186/s12936-023-04621-3.

DOI:10.1186/s12936-023-04621-3

PMID:37355627

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10290321/

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Ethiopia has a history of climate related malaria epidemics. An improved understanding of malaria-climate interactions is needed to inform malaria control and national adaptation plans.

METHODS

Malaria-climate associations in Ethiopia were assessed using (a) monthly climate data (1981-2016) from the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (NMA), (b) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the eastern Pacific, Indian Ocean and Tropical Atlantic and (c) historical malaria epidemic information obtained from the literature. Data analysed spanned 1950-2016. Individual analyses were undertaken over relevant time periods. The impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on seasonal and spatial patterns of rainfall and minimum temperature (Tmin) and maximum temperature (Tmax) was explored using NMA online Maprooms. The relationship of historic malaria epidemics (local or widespread) and concurrent ENSO phases (El Niño, Neutral, La Niña) and climate conditions (including drought) was explored in various ways. The relationships between SSTs (ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole and Tropical Atlantic), rainfall, Tmin, Tmax and malaria epidemics in Amhara region were also explored.

RESULTS

El Niño events are strongly related to higher Tmax across the country, drought in north-west Ethiopia during the July-August-September (JAS) rainy season and unusually heavy rain in the semi-arid south-east during the October-November-December (OND) season. La Niña conditions approximate the reverse. At the national level malaria epidemics mostly occur following the JAS rainy season and widespread epidemics are commonly associated with El Niño events when Tmax is high, and drought is common. In the Amhara region, malaria epidemics were not associated with ENSO, but with warm Tropical Atlantic SSTs and higher rainfall.

CONCLUSION

Malaria-climate relationships in Ethiopia are complex, unravelling them requires good climate and malaria data (as well as data on potential confounders) and an understanding of the regional and local climate system. The development of climate informed early warning systems must, therefore, target a specific region and season when predictability is high and where the climate drivers of malaria are sufficiently well understood. An El Niño event is likely in the coming years. Warming temperatures, political instability in some regions, and declining investments from international donors, implies an increasing risk of climate-related malaria epidemics.

摘要

背景

埃塞俄比亚曾发生过多次与气候相关的疟疾疫情。为了为疟疾防控和国家适应计划提供信息，我们需要更好地了解疟疾与气候的相互作用。

方法

利用（a）来自埃塞俄比亚国家气象局（NMA）的 1981-2016 年月度气候数据，（b）东太平洋、印度洋和热带大西洋的海表温度（SST），以及（c）从文献中获取的历史疟疾疫情信息，评估了埃塞俄比亚的疟疾与气候关联。分析的数据跨度为 1950-2016 年。在相关时间段内分别进行了个体分析。使用 NMA 的在线地图室探讨了厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）对降雨和最低温度（Tmin）和最高温度（Tmax）的季节和空间模式的影响。以各种方式探讨了历史疟疾疫情（局部或广泛）与同期 ENSO 阶段（厄尔尼诺、中性、拉尼娜）和气候条件（包括干旱）之间的关系。还探讨了 SST（ENSO、印度洋偶极子和热带大西洋）、降雨、Tmin、Tmax 和阿姆哈拉地区疟疾疫情之间的关系。

结果

厄尔尼诺事件与全国范围内的 Tmax 升高密切相关，7-8-9 月（JAS）雨季期间，埃塞俄比亚西北部干旱，10-11-12 月（OND）雨季期间东南部半干旱地区异常多雨。拉尼娜条件则相反。在国家层面上，疟疾疫情大多发生在 JAS 雨季之后，当 Tmax 较高且干旱普遍时，广泛的疫情通常与厄尔尼诺事件有关。在阿姆哈拉地区，疟疾疫情与 ENSO 无关，但与温暖的热带大西洋 SST 和更高的降雨量有关。

结论

埃塞俄比亚的疟疾与气候的关系很复杂，要揭示这些关系，需要有良好的气候和疟疾数据（以及潜在混杂因素的数据），并了解区域和地方气候系统。因此，开发气候相关的预警系统必须针对特定的地区和季节，在这些地区和季节中，可预测性高，疟疾的气候驱动因素有足够的了解。未来几年可能会发生厄尔尼诺事件。气温升高、一些地区政治不稳定以及国际捐助者投资减少，意味着与气候相关的疟疾疫情风险越来越大。