Longitudinal fluctuations in cytomegalovirus load in bone marrow transplant patients: relationship between peak virus load, donor/recipient serostatus, acute GVHD and CMV disease.

Quantitative competitive PCR was used to monitor the quantity of cytomegalovirus (HCMV) in 1647 blood samples from 110 BMT recipients. DNAemia was detected in 49/110 (45%) of the patients, of whom 15/49 experienced HCMV disease. Peak virus load during surveillance was elevated in symptomatic (median 4.5 log10 genomes/ml) vs asymptomatic patients (median 3.6 log10 genomes/ml, P=0.002) and was also significantly elevated in HCMV seropositive recipients of seronegative marrow, (R+D-, median 5.0 log10), compared to those in the R-D- and R+D+ groups (P < 0.01 and <0.005). Odds ratios for disease per 0.25 log10 increase in viral load, recipient seropositivity and aGVHD were 1.43 (P=0.004), 6.60 (P=0.05) and 3.17 (P=0.08), respectively. In multivariate logistic regression analysis only elevated viral load remained a significant risk factor for HCMV disease. The computed disease probability viral load curve showed a rapid increase in disease risk at viral loads between 3.8 and 5.5 log10 genomes/ml in blood, and odds ratios for disease were determined for different threshold viral loads. These data demonstrate the central role of viral load in the pathogenesis of HCMV in BMT recipients and provide an additional marker for targeting and monitoring therapy.