Kaplan E H, Kedem E, Pollack S
Yale School of Management, New Haven, Connecticut 05620-8200, USA.
J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr Hum Retrovirol. 1998 Apr 15;17(5):465-9. doi: 10.1097/00042560-199804150-00012.
The HIV incidence in recent adult Ethiopian immigrants to Israel is estimated through the use of snapshot estimators based on percentage of CD4 progression with time since infection, whereas the preimmigration incidence experienced by this population is estimated using an epidemic model applied to HIV prevalence data obtained from immigrants on arrival in Israel. The snapshot estimators place incidence in adult Ethiopian immigrants in Israel between 3 and 11 infections/1000 uninfected persons/year around May 1995. In contrast, the epidemic model suggests that the incidence experienced by this population before immigration was between 12 and 22 infections/1000 uninfected persons/year. Although the drop in incidence postimmigration is good news, in the aggregate, we estimate that between 50 and 190 new infections have occurred annually in adult Ethiopians who have immigrated to Israel.
通过使用基于感染后随时间推移的CD4进展百分比的快速评估方法，估算近期成年埃塞俄比亚移民到以色列后的艾滋病毒发病率，而使用应用于从抵达以色列的移民获得的艾滋病毒流行率数据的流行模型，估算该人群移民前的发病率。快速评估方法得出，1995年5月前后，以色列成年埃塞俄比亚移民的发病率为每1000名未感染人群每年3至11例感染。相比之下，流行模型表明，该人群移民前的发病率为每1000名未感染人群每年12至22例感染。尽管移民后发病率下降是个好消息，但总体而言，我们估计每年有50至190名成年埃塞俄比亚移民在以色列感染艾滋病毒。
